Quick Answer: The New York Fed’s January 2026 survey shows 15.3% of Americans expect to miss a minimum debt payment in the coming months—the highest level since April 2020 (the start of the pandemic). The hardest hit: people over 60, those without college degrees, and households under $50K income.
Here’s an alarming paradox from the latest Federal Reserve data: Americans feel more optimistic about their future finances, yet more expect to miss debt payments than at any time since the pandemic began. Something doesn’t add up—unless you understand how denial works.
When 15.3% of people expect to miss minimum payments, we’re not talking about a handful of “irresponsible” borrowers. We’re talking about systemic stress.
When the percentage of people expecting to miss minimum payments hits pandemic levels, that’s not personal failure—that’s an economy failing people.— Steve Rhode
Most money news tells you what happened. I tell you what to do about it.Every weekday I read the enforcement actions, filings and fine print the outlets skip, and turn them into the one or two moves that actually improve your position — a rate worth moving for, a fee you can refuse, a deadline to beat before it costs you.
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The Numbers
The Fed’s quarterly report paints a stark picture:
- Total household debt: $18.59 trillion (up $197 billion in Q3 2025)
- Delinquency rate: 4.5% of all debt is in some stage of delinquency
- Credit card delinquencies: Rising
- Student loan delinquencies: 9.4% are 90+ days delinquent or in default
Who’s at Highest Risk
Warning: The increase in expected missed payments was “most pronounced” among three groups: people over 60, those without college degrees, and households earning under $50,000 annually.
Let’s be clear about what this means:
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- Over 60: People approaching or in retirement, with less time to recover
- No college degree: Often working jobs with lower wages and less stability
- Under $50K income: Every dollar already spoken for; no cushion
These aren’t people making “poor choices.” These are people squeezed by an economy where wages haven’t kept pace with costs.
The K-Shaped Reality
Reality Check: The Fed acknowledges we’re living in a “K-shaped economy”—some borrowers are thriving on stock market gains and home appreciation while others can barely keep up. If you’re on the downward slope of the K, “wait it out” isn’t a strategy.
Those Doing Better
- Benefiting from stock market gains
- Home values appreciated
- Can pay credit card balances monthly
- Building wealth
Those Struggling
- 36.4% say finances are worse than last year
- 60% carry revolving credit card debt
- 15.3% expect to miss payments
- Falling further behind
What the Fed Isn’t Saying
- Delinquencies are expected to “continue to rise” as job losses increase
- Student loan delinquency hit 9.4%—nearly 1 in 10
- Credit card delinquencies are still climbing
- The “resilience” they celebrate masks real suffering at the bottom
What This Means for You
Key Insight: If you’re over 60 with debt, you’re in the highest-risk category according to the Fed’s own data. Time is not on your side. Every month of minimum payments at 20%+ interest is a month closer to retirement—with the same debt.
- If you’re in the “struggling” category, conventional advice isn’t designed for you
- Bankruptcy exists precisely for situations like this
- Protecting retirement accounts matters more than protecting your credit score
- A fresh start at 62 beats grinding at 72 with the same debt
The Bottom Line
Key Takeaways
- 15.3% of Americans expect to miss a minimum debt payment—highest since April 2020
- Total household debt reached $18.59 trillion
- 4.5% of all debt is already in delinquency
- Highest risk: over 60, no college degree, income under $50K
- Student loan delinquency hit 9.4%
- The Fed predicts delinquencies will “continue to rise”
The Federal Reserve is telling us, in its careful bureaucratic language, that millions of Americans are about to fall behind. If you’re one of them—or heading that direction—don’t wait for the economy to save you.
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(Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current household debt in America?
According to the New York Fed’s Q3 2025 report, total household debt in the United States reached $18.59 trillion, up $197 billion from the previous quarter.
How many Americans are behind on debt payments?
4.5% of all outstanding debt is currently in some stage of delinquency. Additionally, 15.3% of Americans expect to miss a minimum debt payment in the coming months—the highest level since the pandemic began in April 2020.
Who is most at risk for debt delinquency?
According to the New York Fed survey, the increase in expected missed payments was most pronounced among people over 60, those without a college degree, and households with annual income below $50,000.
What is the student loan delinquency rate?
9.4% of aggregate student debt is 90+ days delinquent or in default as of Q3 2025. Student loan delinquency rates remained elevated after a sharp rise in the first half of 2025.
What should I do if I expect to miss debt payments?
If you’re in the 15.3% expecting to miss payments, don’t wait for the crisis to hit. Explore your options now including bankruptcy, which may protect your retirement accounts and give you a faster fresh start than years of struggling with minimum payments.
Dealing With Debt? Understanding your options is the first step. See how all your debt relief options compare — including ones most sites won’t tell you about. The Find Your Path quiz gives a recommendation based on your actual numbers, and the Scam-O-Meter checks any company’s complaint history before you sign. Federal Reserve research shows bankruptcy filers recover faster than those who don’t file.
