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Forecasts and Trends

Good News: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Drop

Delinquent Mortgages

The national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter, dropping to 5.82% at the end of the second quarter in 2011. This information is reported by TransUnion and is part of its ongoing series of quarterly analyses of credit-active U.S. consumers and how they are managing credit related ... Read More »

    Consumer Borrowing Up in June. Reading Tea Leaves.

    Percentage Revolving Consumer Lending

    The latest data from the Federal Reserve is out for June 2011. The data shows an increase in revolving consumer borrowing for primarily commercial banks. Commercial banks increased revolving consumer debt from May 579.2 billion to June 584.4 billion. Pools of securitized assets diminished between May and June from 41.8 billion to 41.5 billion. Other sectors showed growth in unsecured ... Read More »

      Continued Concern for Debt Relief Demand

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      The downgrading of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor’s this week from AAA to AA+ might feel like an event that only has an impact on those that watch the economy. But it’s impact on the debt relief industry can’t be overlooked either. In order to have a successful debt relief industry you need two components, consumers with ... Read More »

        The Future of Credit Counseling. Shades Might Not be Required.

        Ready to Collapse

        At the recent Debt Relief Master Class I held in Raleigh, North Carolina we had the pleasure of hearing from Howard Dvorkin from Consolidated Credit Counseling Services on his view of the future of credit counseling. Howard has been in the credit counseling industry since about the early 1990s and has a very broad perspective that all debt relief providers ... Read More »

          New Data Shows People Aggressively Paying Off Debt and Using Cards Less

          Less consumer borrowing leads to less debt relief demand.

          TransUnion has released new data that indicates consumers made $72 billion more in payments on their credit cards than purchases between the first quarters of 2009 and 2010. The reason this is newsworthy is because this occurred during a time when it was believed lower credit card debt was being driven primarily by credit card charge offs. “Many people in ... Read More »

            Default Rates Continue to Fall at Credit Card Issuers

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            Reports just out from five of the six top credit card issuers showed that default rates on accounts fell in June. Of the banks reporting, Bank of America showed the biggest reduction in default rates with Chase Bank, Discover reporting very noticeable declines. Just recently Discover said their default rate was at the lowest ever in their history. According to ... Read More »

              Consumers Loading Up on Credit in May But Watch Out


              Yesterday I published Revolving Debt Increases in May. Is This a Good Sign? and then a reader sent me a tipster (send in your tips here) message and pointed out an article The American Consumer May Now Be Maxed Out. The article draws the conclusion that: “We contend, in our original report on this series, “Retail Sales as Echoes of ... Read More »

                Revolving Debt Increases in May. Is This a Good Sign?


                The Federal Reserve G19 report is out for May and it shows an uptick in revolving consumer debt. On an annual basis the amount of outstanding unsecured consumer debt rose at a 5.1 percent annual rate. Moving up from $789.8 billion to $793.1 billion. I’ve said for a long time to watch for an uptick in G19 revolving credit as ... Read More »

                  Debt Relief industry Trends, June, 2011 – Credit Counseling, Debt Settlement, Bankruptcy

                  Credit Counseling June 2011

                  In what has turned into a regular report from this site, here is the next installment in my forecast for the debt relief industry. The extension of consumer credit remains weak. Delinquencies and defaults are dropping and sometimes, as Discover announced recently, to historic lows. Credit Counseling Demand Sources inside credit counseling are reporting continued declines in new debt management ... Read More »

                    Consumers Demonstrate Less Need for Debt Relief Services

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                    TransUnion just release new data which shows their Credit Risk Index (CRI) continues to decline. The CRI is a forecast tool that shows the likely chances of a consumer not being able to repay their debt. For the first quarter of 2011, the CRI came in at 123.56 – approximately 5 percent lower than the index high of 129.67 (Q4 ... Read More »

                      Discover Card Delinquencies Hit Record Low

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                      Discover Financial Services (DFS) said the proportion of its customers who are a month late on their credit card payments hit an all-time low during its second quarter, helping more than double the card company’s profit. The record low in credit-card delinquency rates, which the company said covers a 25-year period, highlights the sharp turnaround in the ability of Discover’s ... Read More »

                        Credit Card Charge Off Rates Continue to Fall

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                        Story out in Collections & Credit Risk is reporting the average consumer credit card default rate has continued it;s decline for most large issuers in May, according to Moody’s Investors Services. All of the top six credit card issuers except JPMorgan Chase & Co. on June 15 reported fewer accounts deemed uncollectible during May, and Chase’s increase was so slight ... Read More »

                          Fed Reports Consumer Debt Levels Rise


                          The latest Federal Reserve Consumer Credit release is out and while consumer debt levels increased at an annual rate of 3 percent in the last reported month, April, the bad news is that the rise is fueled by non-revolving student loans, auto loans, etc. Revolving debt continued it’s fall but at a slower pace of an annual rate of negative ... Read More »

                            Credit Counseling Groups Laying Off Staff. Even the NFCC HQ Had a Recent Layoff.

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                            A story out today in Collections & Credit Risk highlights some of the issues facing credit counseling groups now with decreased demand by consumers. “Consumers have resolved their credit card problems to such an extent over the past year that nonprofit credit-counseling firms are noticing a significant decline in demand for their services, resulting in layoffs at some firms.” “The ... Read More »

                              Credit Counseling Warned About Surviving The Next Couple of Years

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                              I’ve been saying that the debt relief space is in a difficult spot right now. And I’ve provided warnings to all members of the debt relief community. Some have trounced me for being too “negative” in what I see just ahead. But recently Jeff Tenenbaum gave a presentation at the recent credit counseling meetings of ACCPros. Here is what he ... Read More »

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