Let’s play a quick game.
What do you think the average American believes will happen to the economy next year?
Higher taxes? Less social support? A tightening job market? Maybe all of the above?
Well, the New York Fed just published a bombshell set of findings—buried inside are insights that hit a lot closer to home than you might expect.
Because this isn’t about politics or Wall Street predictions.
It’s about how you—and millions of others—are quietly reshaping public policy with nothing more than your expectations.
📊 What the Fed Found: A Surprising Shift in Sentiment
In their latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Public Policy Survey published on Liberty Street Economics, the New York Fed uncovered something surprising:
Americans are now expecting less government support—even as economic anxiety is growing.
Let that sink in.
In 2021, in the thick of the pandemic, people expected stronger support from Uncle Sam: more stimulus checks, bigger unemployment safety nets, student loan forgiveness—you name it.
But by 2023 and early 2024? That optimism took a nosedive.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Only 41% of people now expect unemployment benefits to be more generous in the future, down from over 55% during the pandemic.
- Just 44% think the government will help reduce income inequality.
- Only 27% expect student loan forgiveness to be expanded.
- And just 22% believe the government will become more helpful to retirees.
In short, people aren’t counting on Washington to have their back like they used to.
💭 Wait, Why the Big Shift?
That’s the million-dollar question.
There’s no single answer, but the Fed suggests a few possibilities:
- Rising polarization may make people doubt whether any major changes will actually happen.
- Post-pandemic fatigue could be setting in, where people no longer believe emergency-style support is coming again.
- And honestly? People might just be tired of getting their hopes up.
It’s like getting ghosted by the government. Enough times, and you stop expecting the call.
🔥 Here’s Why This Matters (a Lot)
What you believe about the future changes how you act today.
If you expect less help tomorrow:
- You might cut back spending, just in case.
- You might delay starting a business, fearing a lack of safety nets.
- You might pull back on retirement contributions, thinking Social Security won’t be there for you.
These little mindset shifts—multiplied by millions of people—become the economy.
And that’s what makes this report such a big deal. The Fed isn’t just tracking policy. It’s tracking hope.
⚖️ Big Government or Backstop? The Tug-of-War That Won’t Quit
There’s a deeper tension humming beneath all of this. It’s the age-old argument that shows up at kitchen tables, campaign rallies, and comment sections across the country:
Should the government step in to help when things fall apart? Or should we all just pull ourselves up by the bootstraps and carry on?
Some folks believe deeply in individual responsibility. They argue that government involvement makes people soft, stifles innovation, and creates dependency. From that perspective, fewer safety nets mean a leaner, freer society where success is earned—not handed out.
But for others, that view misses something important:
Sometimes, people don’t fall because they made bad choices. Sometimes, they fall because the system is rigged, the job disappeared, or a medical bill nuked their savings.
And in those moments, having a government that can step in—to catch people before they crash through the floor—isn’t a handout. It’s a lifeline.
This debate isn’t just academic. It shows up in the Fed’s survey results, too. Because while fewer people expect help, it doesn’t mean fewer people need help.
The question is:
If millions of people feel more vulnerable but expect less support, who or what fills that gap?
Neighbors? Charities? Mutual aid? Personal savings? Private companies? Or… do we need to reimagine what government is for in the first place?
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer here. Maybe the right answer depends on who you are, where you live, and how many times you’ve fallen and had to climb your way back.
But it’s a question worth sitting with:
What should the role of government be when life throws you into the deep end—sink or swim?
And maybe more importantly:
If the help isn’t coming… are we okay with that?
🚨 The Silent Stress Test Happening Right Now
This change in sentiment is like a national stress test.
People are being asked: Can you survive without help?
- If inflation rises again, will your income keep up?
- If layoffs come, will unemployment benefits carry you?
- If college debt explodes, is anyone bailing you out?
More and more Americans are answering: Probably not.
And that kind of quiet pessimism? It trickles into everything—consumer spending, housing, savings, even mental health.
🤯 Here’s the Twist Most People Miss
Ready for the real kicker?
Even as people expect less help from the government…
They’re still feeling more vulnerable than ever.
It’s not just that the safety net is shrinking. The need for one is growing; people don’t think it’ll be there when they fall.
That gap between fear and support? That’s where the real danger lies.
🧭 So, What Can You Actually Do About This?
You can’t control what Congress does.
But you can prepare like the cavalry isn’t coming, while hoping you’re wrong.
Here’s what that looks like:
- Track your actual spending for 30 days. Forget budgets. Just get real about where your money’s going.
- Build your own safety net—a small emergency fund, even if it’s just $500.
- Don’t bet your future on forgiveness. If it happens? Great. But plan like it won’t.
- Use credit cards smartly. Pay in full each month. Don’t close your oldest cards. And never, ever rely on a debit card.
- Talk to someone who actually gives a damn. If you’re in serious debt, there are real options—but scams are everywhere. I always recommend starting with Damon Day, a debt coach I trust.
If this topic resonates, I wrote a book that might help: The Path to Happiness and Wealth. It’s all about rebuilding your mindset when you feel like the system’s left you behind.
💬 Final Thought: Your Beliefs Are a Form of Power
The Fed watches what we believe because belief drives behavior.
Do You Have a Question You'd Like Help With? Contact Debt Coach Damon Day. Click here to reach Damon.
And when millions of people stop believing in help, the ripple effect changes the whole economy.
You may feel small, but your expectations matter.
So take care of your money, take care of your mind—and take care of each other.
Because we’re not just consumers. We’re citizens. And that still means something.
📌 TL;DR
- The New York Fed found Americans now expect less government support than during the pandemic.
- People feel more financially vulnerable but less hopeful about help.
- These beliefs drive real economic behavior and can shape the future.
- Prepare as if help isn’t coming—but don’t stop hoping.
🧠 FAQ
Why does the Fed care about public policy expectations?
Because consumer expectations influence economic decisions—spending, saving, borrowing—which drive the economy.
What does this mean for my money?
If people expect less help, they may start cutting back on spending or avoiding risk. That could slow the economy and increase personal financial stress.
Should I still expect student loan forgiveness?
Maybe—but plan like it won’t happen. The data shows declining belief in future forgiveness policies.
