Credit Slips is reporting that U.S. bankruptcy filings have now dropped for the 13th consecutive month in November. The daily filing rate is down 12.5% from last November.
Although the past seven months have seen double-digit year-over-year drops, these drops have consistently stayed between 10-17%. In other words, there is no increase in the rate of decrease. Extrapolating from this trend, we simply would expect to see about 10-17% fewer filings over the coming year than in the past year. Whether this trend continues, however, will depend principally on the ups and downs of the consumer credit market (not unemployment or foreclosure rates as conventional wisdom holds).
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